1. No redouble – 3 points; Take – 7 points. Black wins the game over 22% from here, whereas passing affords only 15% match equity.
2. Redouble – 5 points; Take – 5 points. Despite the duplication of sixes, this is a powerful double.
3. Double – 6 points; Take – 4 points. White cracks unless he rolls a 5 or 6, and also cracks with 52, 64, and 55 (that last isn’t so horrible). Even if White runs out with one man, Black has excellent chances at a counterprime. Still, a six-prime is a six-prime; White must double.
4. Redouble – 3 points; Take – 7 points. Black can win going forwards, or from the holding game when White enters immediately. The combined chances are sufficient to eke out a take.
5. Double – 9 points; Take – 1 point. Black is barely a favorite to win the game, but many of those wins are gammons. It is a solid score double.
6. No redouble – 4 points; Take – 6 points. It’s easier for a rich camel ... How did that go? Anyway, it is almost impossible to nail the redouble/take at this score, and Black hasn’t managed it here. White wins a bountiful 9.5%.
7. Double – 3 points; Take – 7 points. Out of every ten games Black will lose about four gammons, but will also win nearly four games. The take is easier than it looks.
8. 11/9(2), 10/8(2) – 10 points. Some players might get clever (the Fifth Amendment protects me from naming names) and clear the ten-point with 10/6(2). Getting home safely is only part of the game plan; White will be running, and having builders trained on him is important.
9. 6/5(2), 3/2*, 2/1 – 10 points. Yes, it’s disgusting, but hitting and lifting is best.
10. Double – 1 point; Take – 9 points. When this position came up I was able to state with utmost confidence that it was a take. It is interesting how much the bots have changed our thinking. The reason I knew the answer here is that in 1996 I played this position as a prop:
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This was in the early days of the bots. I owned a JellyFish; no one owned a Snowie. I had rolled this out after redoubling and gammoning Neil Kazaross in a finals match. Neil and I wondered if it was a take, but we learned that at the score it was not even a redouble. I took the position card to Las Vegas, and described the rollout results. No one believed them. At the time there was still skepticism about whether a bot could handle the tough ones. This take was so counterintuitive (Black has 32 hits) that players took for granted that JellyFish must be misplaying it. These were, by the way, among the world’s best. I would bet that all, now, would see it was a take, and certainly no one would play it with me as a prop for a solid week, as Chuck Papazian did.
Scoring
100-81 – See you in Naklua!
80-61 – You can handle some pretty spicy curry!
60-41 – Need a Tums?
40-21 – You’ll need that Singha!
20-0 – You shouldn’t have drunk the Singha on an empty stomach! |